nyonyamansor09

When a newspaper croaks, a loyal and important servant to its community is lost. Or that's what the obituaries say. The truth is, a dead newspaper scarcely bears any resemblance to the mythical beast that will be lionised when the printing presses shut down and the plastic bag full of paper and ink stops landing on lawns each morning.  The Advocate, its death assured as a marsupial on a Tasmanian road at dusk, will be one of those lionised newspapers. It shouldn't be. The Advocate's turf is one of Australia's most economically disadvantaged electorates, something that goes hand in hand with low education levels. It's almost assured when The Advocate recycles a press release or culls stats to craft a story, the readership won't find themselves digging any deeper. Forget them trawling ABS spreadsheets for reality.  Sean Ford, senior journalist amongst a bunch of 12 year olds, knows this. He's The Advocate's "resident numbers man" (yep, that's...

Apologies for the lack of anything substantial this week, unfortunately I do have employment and other things going on. Needless to say little has changed in Tasmania - except for it getting worse. Burnie listings have exploded, so much so, I feel like a bear handler from a former Soviet state when talking about it - I could be up on cruelty charges, it's almost poking a caged animal with a stick at this stage. Devonport continues to rise and Launceston looks like it's about to blow after adding another fifty plus listings before the week is out. After reading Jeremy Grantham's latest "Night of the Living Fed" newsletter at work today, I had hoped to present it as some super new news, but David Llewellyn-Smith squeezed me out on that front. I will say, in a moment of Chris Joye pomposity, I'm taking credit for Grantham's follow up, given the fact I made sure GMO was fully aware of the the howling from Australian vested interests to his bubble claims. Take...

As I woke up with morning breath to make any canine proud, I poked my head out the front door - finding I'd once again left out money for the paper boy, who'd once again delivered me Tasmania's worst newspaper. I gotta have words with that little creep. The Launceston rotter, The Examiner, or in this case The Sunday Examiner - an even more uninspiring version of the Monday to Saturday version - is one of those newspapers you can count on to toe the expected business line, while smashing the usual suspects and soft targets with full force. Look out bogans and drink drivers. Four pages in, readers were treated to an story entitled "Opening doors on property", where Australian Property Monitors, Anthony Ishac was busy sending out some conflicting signals. The data presented showed Burnie down 11% in the last quarter (I won't be the smart arse who extrapolates that to an annual figure) and Launceston down 2%, which mirrored the state and national decline. Yet as b...

Announcer: Reports continue to flow from the outer colonies of plastic and wood structures being erected on front lawns. Debate rages in the local communities regarding the how and why, but one consensus has emerged - this isn't good for real estate prices. Lady stands in front of house. Lady: I don't know where these signs are coming from, but I want it to stop. I've got one either side of me and the longer they sit here the more I can feel my home value going down and we've only got 10% equity in this thing. We had 15% but we took some out to buy a new boat and BBQ. As the bad news piles up, much to the chagrin of the real estate industry, who have effectively now lost control of the media, the bubble boys are furiously comparing notes - trying to understand where the epicentre is. Don't discount Tasmania's ability to punch above its weight. Right now in Tasmania, real estate signs are appearing like the plague cross did in 1400's Europe. Real estate agent...

They used to tell me I was selling a dream, and so I followed the mob, When there was a home to show, or contracts to sign, I was always there right on the job. They used to tell me I was selling a dream, with riches and glory ahead, Why should I be standing in line, just waiting for bread? Brother, can you spare a dime? This morning, on the way to work, some guy sporting a bluetooth ear piece and a sharp suit was hassling me for spare change. Confused, I tossed him a coin and thought nothing more of it. By mid-afternoon I knew what was up and I wanted my coin back. Apparently there is a real estate Hindenburg going down in Tasmania (who knew), which some real estate agents finally admitted to this morning. You probably already know about this because it was featured on bubblepedia and delusional economics this afternoon. And right now the web nerds at The Advocate are busy scratching their heads, wondering where all those hits came from. Online , our old buddy, Deanne ' seve...

In the face of continuing rodent infested news for housing, what better time for BIS Shrapnel to come out with one of their housing outlooks, predictions, forecasts, whatever. One seems to roll out every quarter, under a different guise, reheating essentially the same information. Basically with the job of communicating from the sector, to the naive, through a lazy media, how awesome shit is gonna get. The equivalent of an agent reassuring you: "you'll never lose in this location." And if you are naive, or just twelfth man on the deal team, last to know - this one rolled out after being commissioned by QBE LMI. Yes sir, they're a big old issuer of mortgage insurance. Needless to say house prices are going up. So don't delay, buy one for Mum, one for Dad and one for QBE. In the face of all common sense, you can make 13% in Hobart over the next 3 years, or you could go backwards even further, like some Hobart residences previously featured in this blog. Which bring...

Rotten. That would be the only way to describe the latest ABS housing finance statistics for Tasmania. Sure they're up on last month and you can make statistics dance anyway you choose, if you're so inclined. Yet for the whole of 2010, Tasmanian housing finance commitments have not cracked 1000 in any month. Well what does that mean? August and September of 2008, in the midst of the global financial crisis, was the last time figures hit this mark and looked like staying there. And we know what happened next, Rudd and Swan tossed money out into the battlefield and their doe-eyed saleswoman, Tanya Plibersek, sold the cash bribes to the naive and inexperienced first home buyers. Thanks to that intervention, the figures climbed above 1000 and stayed there until January this year, when the bribe was withdrawn. Since that point Tasmanian housing finance commitments have continued in a bottom bumping trend, under 1000 per month. To put this in perspective, sub-1000 is a figure not con...

It’s only taken six weeks and I can officially get high on the smell of my own farts. This morning a North-West reader alerted me the local newspaper, The Advocate, had written a story questioning any housing shortage - going so far as to suggest there might be a bunch of empty houses around the state. I ran out and grabbed the paper, in the process half expecting pig poop to land on my head at any moment. Upon reading the article I found myself as pleasantly surprised as anyone could be in this situation – don’t kid yourself, the weekly Domain real estate lift out is probably the ventilator keeping this newspaper breathing. Now anyone who’s read this mangy mess of a blog would quickly realise The Advocate story had my fingerprints all over it. After all, it was only last weekend I drove a dagger into the heart of any spruiker cunning enough to suggest the North-West had a shortage of housing. And a month earlier I suggested Tasmania was currently building a new dwelling for every 1.84...

Well eventually I knew there would come a time I had to do some real work maintaining this blog, I couldn't get by on smart arse comments and poor sub-editing forever - I just needed a hook to get me going. It came in the most depressing way, as I was informed several people I knew were sitting on a second property - a second empty property - a second empty property they'd renovated and hoped to flip. 'Hoped' being the operative word. As previously mentioned the, details are too depressing for words and if I went into them I'd probably turn all Glenn Beck as I start blubbering at the prospect of the financial Armageddon these people face. Putting two and two together I quickly find the properties listed online, pictured dead empty - then something clicks. If you're someone like me - with too much time on his hands and a mild case of undiagnosed asperger's - you notice a few patterns and being the relentless and lifeless fool I am, I decided to follow them. T...

It was a momentous moment. After four months and two discounts, the pictured house dropped below the 400k price level. Why is this so momentous? The house sits within one of Burnie's McMansion estates, where eight houses, equating to over 20% of this estate are up for sale, and all houses were listed over 400k. That was until this week. It's now at $399,000 (I'm sure that $1000 was a true psychological barrier for buyers) down from $425,000. Reluctantly this owner has seen the writing on the wall and offered a token discount, while no doubt the other vendors keenly observe. Only one other vendor has seen fit to discount, and this amongst a group of houses that have sat, without interest, from two to seven months. The pictured vendor may still walk away with significant gains, the house was purchased in 2002 for $179,500, but it's the newer owners in the estate who will be getting edgy. When you shelled out 400-600k over the past couple of years and the guy across the ro...

In the port side city of Burnie, someone's had a gut-full of being a landlord. Two and a half months ago these two units were listed for sale at $315,000 and potential buyers were being lured with the promise of a  property that represents income plus growth . While the income remains, that growth has quickly become the stuff of Santa Claus, the tooth fairy and a reformed Brendon Fevola. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the discounts on this property. $315,000, quickly became $299,000, quickly became $290,000. And with that, evaporated the chance this vendor was going to experience any growth. Previous purchase price? $282,500, back in early 2008. Factor in the $10,000 or more in closing costs and the agent fees this time around and I'm not sure all those tax deductible, negative gearing losses are quite working out on this one. Just remember, this is water off a duck's back. And you'll be reminded of such, next time you see a property story on news.com.au - aft...

As the agent says, it's a prime investment - for the vendors. It cost them $47,000 in 2001, no you're not reading that wrong. Mind you, this was way back when houses were somewhere you lived and not something you got an erection for, then ran to the bank asking for 30 years to life. See things were a little different in Tasmania, there was honour, innocence and common sense. You bought a house, you sold a house, you might have even lost a couple of bucks, but it was only ever a couple and it didn't matter - because your neck was never on the line. Then credit exploded and mainlanders arrived, buying up every house they could and renting them back to the locals. That's how someone had the audacity to ask $319,000 for that heap just over six months ago. Thankfully no one is that stupid and it's just been knocked down to $265,000. Still, there can only be one loser in this situation - the buyer. Cause it's important to see where this house has come from, then ask ...