Rotten

Rotten. That would be the only way to describe the latest ABS housing finance statistics for Tasmania. Sure they're up on last month and you can make statistics dance anyway you choose, if you're so inclined. Yet for the whole of 2010, Tasmanian housing finance commitments have not cracked 1000 in any month.

Well what does that mean?

August and September of 2008, in the midst of the global financial crisis, was the last time figures hit this mark and looked like staying there. And we know what happened next, Rudd and Swan tossed money out into the battlefield and their doe-eyed saleswoman, Tanya Plibersek, sold the cash bribes to the naive and inexperienced first home buyers.

Thanks to that intervention, the figures climbed above 1000 and stayed there until January this year, when the bribe was withdrawn. Since that point Tasmanian housing finance commitments have continued in a bottom bumping trend, under 1000 per month. To put this in perspective, sub-1000 is a figure not consistently seen since the year 2000.

With the cupboard now bare, could any more money could be thrown at housing? Aside from the debt overhang from the last stimulus, the parliament now rests on a knife edge - so doubtful. The average citizen may actually get a real world lesson in housing - it can move in two directions.

Quite a momentous, or let's face it, or rotten day, to list your home for sale at $555,000. Like someone did today with this 3x2 in Burnie:

 

Now I'm all for ambition, but 14 months ago it sold for $480,000. Given the economic outlook, only a madman could now front $555k and think it is sustainable. Alas, there may be a saviour. A hospital is only a 3 wood away, over the back fence. Maybe a doctor will be stupid enough to outlay such a figure, but would you want that nutty doctor looking after you?

Give it a few months, maybe it will sell, or we can fly south, to Hobart and see what happens when you overpay and can't snag a buyer.

Eight months ago this quaint 4x2 went onto the market at $460,000. Six months and no bids and now the owners will take $400,000. Only problem with that - it last sold for $450,000 in 2007.

What are the odds another discount is being considered? Well let me clue you in - 60k of debt for every man, woman and child; immigration falling; student visas are crashing; our high dollar making us a less attractive destination; listings up 30%; empty listings running at nearly 20%; a new dwelling built for every 1.62 people added to the state population.


Who can save us?

I hear Oprah is on her way.