The Cut

As talk of a buyers' strike begins to filter through the media, the already striking buyers shrug their shoulders and hope the noobs will at least have the decency to bring some pizza with them to the picket line. Though in all reality a picket line gives a sense of presence, this strike is marked by the lack of anybody baring their arse anywhere.

If you want to know if there's a strike on or not, just ask the agents. Tales of desperation and woe are becoming commonplace; agents are cold calling people they had a conversation with at an open house two years ago; agency principals are throwing their young and stupid under the bus; and there are prayers for Japanese radiation to float towards Australia and fall as rain upon the graves of the recently departed - c'mon in this market who wouldn't sell to a reanimated corpse?

In Tasmania, the writing is on the wall is visible to some. Dean Chamley, who has run a successful flat fee real estate business across the North-West of Tasmania, is pulling the pin on his Devonport office. Chamley has grown using a basic approach that clearly appeals, yet it can't be forgotten he has also grown in a time of credit expansion, free government money and a manic dose of real estate myopia. The last decade of good times have been extrapolated all the way back to when man clubbed his dinner, then his wife, before chasing a woolly mammoth for sport. A time otherwise known as 1993. 

As Chamley, and the man who's scooping up his Devonport office, Michael Burr, said, there's too many agents in the area...

(Burr) said he was hoping to take on some of the Chamley staff and was going for expansion in the face of the toughest market in 20 years.

"We felt there were too many agencies in the district and it was not helping consumers.

(Chamley) said he made the decision to consolidate operations at Ulverstone, Wynyard and Burnie.

"You get to a stage where things tighten up and sometimes bigger's not better.

"The reality is there are too many agents out there, too many companies."

Now one of these guys is right and one of these guys is, huh? They're saying essentially the same thing but one is buying and the other is selling. Maybe there's some sense to be found elsewhere. As REIT president, Adrian Kelly said (in an unlinked sidebar article) the industry is shrinking, agents are leaving and firms are consolidating while noting...

"At the moment, in terms of the number of sales, volumes are down by 20% statewide compared to the same time last year."

Of course Adrian didn't leave out the old chestnut of being at the bottom, but as we know, those in the real estate biz can only predict two things - the growth to be expected and presence of a bottoming market, from where more growth will come.

With sales down 20% and agents going back to the big screen section of Harvey Norman, it's probably time to add something substantial of my own to this. I'm a day early, but here's the October to March listing increase for dwellings across the North-West and Launceston. (note Launceston is November to March)

Smithton, well it speaks for itself. As I've previously posted, it's been smashed and the UV index, well there's not enough rays of sunshine to power a solar dildo. The numbers across the western end are remarkably consistent, there's a spike in Port Sorell (which I've misspelt on the graph, like I keep saying this is a quality news source) which is holiday house and big swinging dick central, so if anyone's carrying too much vanity debt, it would be there. Devonport and Latrobe seem to be holding their own, but that's only in relation to some high comparisons. A 16% rise in listings over six months for a major population centre is no small feat.

Then consider the five month span of Launceston - up 31%. Enjoy the competition, folks and the discounts you'll have to endure.

Sales on the slide, listings on the spike, agents pulling up stumps. Anyone on an official strike might just be fashionably late, but welcome to the party, guys.