Time

The latest ABS housing finance statistics caused some consternation amongst some of us. I say some of us because there was no confusing uptick in the grab for debt in Tasmania - ok, I concede - in the unfiddled figures one more person got themselves a loan in October than did in September.

Unfortunately for the bears, the Tasmanian figures have remained static for the past three months. Unfortunately for the bulls, that current flat spot is still reminiscent of a time when the Backstreet Boys weren't middle aged, Bill Clinton was denying 'sexual relations' with a tubby intern, and Frank Sinatra crooned his last number.

For the first time since 1998, Tasmania is facing a calendar year where every month coughed out less than 1000 housing finance commitments. To put that further in perspective, there were 17 sub 1000 months from the start of 2001 to the end of 2009 and in 2010 we already have 10 sub 1000 months.

The first home buyers have dropped by over 50% from their pumped up average of 2009. While it's to be expected, it's not without precedent. There was a similar FHB low spot earlier in the decade, the difference being? The non first home buyers were still there, as another of my terrible graphs shows.

Back in July 03 the FHB market cooled off its previous heights. Everyone who wanted to get in since July 2000 had probably done so; the figures then stayed below 200 per month for over two years till July 2005 - with an average of 137 per month. For 2010 the average number of finance commitments for FHB's is 131 per month, clearly both are within a similar range and seem to show demand pulled forward.

The difference comes in the the non FHB's. For that two year period starting in July 03, the monthly average was 981. For 2010, the monthly average for non FHB's is 744. So it's worth asking, is it really the first home buyers who have disappeared - and are they the reason sales continue to fall and listings continue to grow? Because first home buyers have slackened off in the past, just this time it seems someone else is missing from the party too...

Back when I discussed the August figures as being rotten I also mentioned Oprah was on her way and she might somehow save us. Well she's here so let's see if she's helped the two vendors mentioned in that post.

Burnie 3x2, going for $555,000, previously sold for $480,000 in August 2009.

Still for sale, same deluded price.

Then there was this 4x2 love shack from Hobart. Which I did a little more research on, previously I said it was first on the market in March at $460,000. It was actually first on the market at $495,000 in December 09. A year later, no sale an it's still sitting at the most recent discount down to $400,000. Again, it last sold for $450,000 in April 2007.

Nope, no Oprah influence here. Now it's only a hunch, but in these price ranges I'm guessing it's non FHB territory. So with the non FHB's pulling an Amelia Earhart, there's no one around to pick up the slack and listings will continue to explode, until.... the second home owner's grant becomes reality.

Sheesh, I'm thinking about that too close to bed time - I'm guaranteed nightmares now.