Silence

You have to hand it to the HIA, they really know how to rally the troops and get houses built. Sorry if you don't know what I'm talking about, but it was mid-March in WA, when the HIA offered the sobering news that a cardboard box (hopefully freezer sized) would be the home to many a Perth family by 2020. 

Western Australia would be 72,500 (glad they got it down to a round number) houses short by 2020 and as it stood, they were already 17,400 short back in March.  

It was clear something had to be done, and the HIA, in a benevolent act of kindness, rallied its WA members and they started putting up houses faster than a bunch of Jehovah Witnesses putting up a Kingdom Hall.

Eight months later, problem solved.

The Perth housing market was already oversupplied by 30 per cent, with prices sluggish.

Unfortunately we also found out, courtesy of REIWA head, David Airey, this was bad news for buyers. Because in the Bizarro world of real estate, when interest rates cool things off, the market becomes clustered, the seller drops their price and the buyer actually pays more.  

Yes, when prices fall in real estate everyone is a loser!

Back to building, same phenomenon in Brisbane:

The Housing to 2020 report shows the Brisbane local government area (LGA) had a shortfall of 6474 dwellings in 2009... HIA Queensland executive director Warwick Temby warned that Queensland could find itself more than 150,000 homes short by 2020.

Waz Temby knew you couldn't rely on government to solve the problem, so what happened? He got the HIA members building. After hours, weekends, public holidays, the result? 

Well, I appreciate enthusiasm, but maybe the HIA and its members took things a little too far:

The number of properties for sale last month in Queensland increased 22 per cent to 71,500, compared to last year. About 25,000 of those dwellings were in Brisbane. Yet there were 44,900 properties in Brisbane that remained unoccupied.

Now I'm being a smart arse, but don't these recent reports, and the HIA's lack of any comment on the issue say something - yeah, there was no shortage in either of these markets to begin with! So what the hell are they playing at?

Selling houses by any means possible. The shortage meme and its beginnings might never be known, but it was quickly picked up by real estate desperadoes, who saw its value in scaring the crap out of buyers, "if they didn't get in now, they never would." 

"If you're not building enough houses, people have to buy into the established market or keep renting and that just pushes up prices," he said. Mr Dastlik 

And if you keep telling people there's a shortage, they soil their Y-fronts and rush out to buy. Pushing prices up until you've scared every loose set of bowels out there.

And what happens when everyone else left doesn't wear Depends?

Perth and Brisbane are experiencing it. 

Dare I suggest the HIA have provided absolutely useless guidance to their members, and out of embarrassment they've now zippered their pie hole shut on shortage talk. It's hard to keep talking up a shortage when listings are exploding around you, buyers are yawning and sellers are shaking in their boots watching 'for sale' signs crowd them out.

The Tasmanian HIA spouted we were building 200 fewer houses a year than needed. I went on a counting spree, "One, one empty house. Two, two empty houses. Three, three empty houses.... four hundred and twenty three, four hundred and twenty three empty houses, for sale across the north of the state. AH AH AH AH AH!"

A good number happened to be empty specs, which is worrying if a builder put those up based on some shortage fallacy pushed by their own industry group. 

Who do you fancy in a punch up between a tradie and an economist calling himself 'doctor'?