Here we go

As terrible figures and anecdotal evidence mount on one side, on the other the excuse play book is being furiously scanned for any argument to calm the nerves. As auction figures continue to stink it up during the traditional kick arse spring selling season, we're now told this is actually a bad time for house sales - it's too close to Christmas, or maybe not, because someone sold a boat. Such is the dire state of the Gold Coast Bulletin.

Like I've previously said, the spruikers aren't going to give up that easy, no matter how retarded they look. In fact, there's probably not a copy of Glengarry Glen Ross available in a video store across the country right now. Sales meetings are in full swing as every two-bit ex-shoe-salesman tries to perfect his best Alec Baldwin, if only to keep the lease on the BMW X5 through Christmas and maintain that shiny veneer of success to the relatives, reminding them what arseholes they are for renting.

All this is a backdrop to the smart investors dumping properties like 1773 Boston tea. While the naive investors look to the wise-heads (boneheads) on property investment forums, or economists calling themselves Dr, for reassurance on the state of play.

Of course it's 'temporary' or it's going to be 'flat' for sometime. Ask yourself - with a flat market, what is the incentive to hold a loss making investment? Those are the kind of investments you need like a hole in the head. And it seems the investors in Launceston clearly hate holes in the head - at the start of the month 37.7% of listings in Launceston were empty or rentals. Since that time, 23 days ago, Launceston listings have increased 6.2%.

Sounds like a bad time to sell a house, eh? Or what if you were forced to sell a house?

Look what washed into the Launceston market over the past week...

Sold April 2009 for $305,000 - Now asking $319,000.

Sold June 2009 for $282,000 - First asked $295,000. How long did they hold their nerve at that price? Eight days - Now asking $285,000.

Sold March 2009 for $235,000 - Now asking $259,900.

Sold April 2009 for $335,000 - Now asking $349,000.

Sold March 2009 for $206,000 - after a brief flirtation with renting in early November - Now asking for offers over $259,000.

Sold March 2009 for $270,000 - Now asking $327,500.

Sold April 2009 for $398,000 - No price listed, but asking for offers. For what it's worth, the home disappears off search results at $401,000.

Derive what you will from each of these stories, but for some of them it's pretty damn clear the first home buying chickens are coming home too roost. A list price 14k over the previous sale, which was during the first home buyer frenzy of 2009 - what a coincidence. Who gave these people free money and who lent to these people at the bottom of an interest rate cycle? So you don't forget, make sure you write their names on the handle of your pitchfork.

As I finish typing this I'm suffering through another Pinched Face Switzer interview where he hunts down anyone he can find to say the words 'shortage', 'government RMBS' and 'what does Grantham know'. This time Joye is subbed out and onto the field waddles the overfed head of Aussie Home Loans. The last thing I hear before hitting mute, "if only Aussie mums and dads had access to the system Canadians have."

Puke.